All of these methods " support a common conclusion; had there been no increase in oil prices between 2007 : Q3 and 2008 : Q2, the US economy would not have been in a recession over the period 2007 : Q4 through 2008 : Q3 . " Hamilton's own model, a time-series econometric forecast based on data up to 2003, showed that the decline in GDP could have been successfully predicted to almost its full extent given knowledge of the price of oil.
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